======================================

Shaken/VBN by/IN 
[ tumbling/VBG stock/NN prices/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ pessimistic/JJ projections/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ U.S./NNP economic/JJ growth/NN ]
,/, 
[ currency/NN analysts/NNS ]
around/IN 
[ the/DT world/NN ]
have/VBP toned/VBN down/RP 
[ their/PRP$ assessments/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT dollar/NN 's/POS near-term/JJ performance/NN ]
./. 

======================================

Most/JJS of/IN 
[ the/DT 10/CD analysts/NNS ]
polled/VBN 
[ last/JJ week/NN ]
by/IN 
[ Dow/NNP Jones/NNP International/NNP News/NNP Service/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Frankfurt/NNP ]
,/, 
[ Tokyo/NNP ]
,/, 
[ London/NNP ]
and/CC 
[ New/NNP York/NNP ]
expect/VBP 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP dollar/NN ]
to/TO ease/VB only/RB mildly/RB in/IN 
[ November/NNP ]
./. 

[ Opinion/NN ]
is/VBZ mixed/JJ over/IN 
[ its/PRP$ three-month/JJ prospects/NNS ]
./. 

[ Half/NN ]
of/IN 
[ those/DT ]
polled/VBN see/VBP 
[ the/DT currency/NN ]
trending/VBG 
[ lower/JJR ]
over/IN 
[ the/DT next/JJ three/CD months/NNS ]
,/, while/IN 
[ the/DT others/NNS ]
forecast/VBP 
[ a/DT modest/JJ rebound/NN ]
after/IN 
[ the/DT New/NNP Year/NN ]
./. 

======================================

In/IN 
[ late/JJ afternoon/NN New/NNP York/NNP trading/NN yesterday/NN ]
,/, 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
stood/VBD at/IN 
[ 1.8415/CD West/JJ German/JJ ]
marks/NNS ,/, up/RB from/IN 
[ 1.8340/CD marks/NNS late/RB Monday/NNP ]
,/, and/CC at/IN 
[ 142.85/CD yen/NNS ]
,/, up/RB from/IN 
[ 141.90/CD yen/NNS late/RB Monday/NNP ]
./. 

[ A/DT month/NN ]
ago/RB ,/, 
[ a/DT similar/JJ survey/NN ]
predicted/VBD 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
would/MD be/VB trading/VBG at/IN 
[ 1.8690/CD marks/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ 139.75/CD yen/NNS ]
by/IN 
[ the/DT end/NN ]
of/IN 
[ October/NNP ]
./. 

[ Sterling/NN ]
was/VBD trading/VBG at/IN 
[ $/$ 1.5805/CD ]
,/, down/RB from/IN 
[ $/$ 1.5820/CD late/JJ Monday/NNP ]
./. 

======================================

In/IN 
[ Tokyo/NNP Wednesday/NNP ]
,/, 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP currency/NN ]
was/VBD trading/VBG at/IN about/RB 
[ 142.95/CD yen/NNS ]
at/IN 
[ midmorning/NN ]
,/, up/RB from/IN 
[ 142.80/CD yen/NNS ]
at/IN 
[ the/DT opening/NN ]
and/CC up/RB from/IN 
[ Tuesday/NNP 's/POS Tokyo/NNP close/NN ]
of/IN 
[ 142.15/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

[ The/DT average/NN ]
of/IN 
[ estimates/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT 10/CD economists/NNS ]
polled/VBN puts/VBZ 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
around/IN 
[ 1.8200/CD marks/NNS ]
at/IN 
[ the/DT end/NN ]
of/IN 
[ November/NNP ]
and/CC at/IN 
[ 141.33/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

By/IN 
[ late/JJ January/NNP ]
,/, 
[ the/DT consensus/NN ]
calls/VBZ for/IN 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
to/TO be/VB trading/VBG around/IN 
[ 1.8200/CD marks/NNS ]
and/CC near/IN 
[ 142/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

[ Those/DT ]
with/IN 
[ a/DT bullish/JJ view/NN ]
see/VBP 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
trading/VBG up/RB near/IN 
[ 1.9000/CD marks/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ 145/CD yen/NNS ]
,/, while/IN 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
bears/NNS see/VBP 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP currency/NN ]
trading/VBG around/IN 
[ 1.7600/CD marks/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ 138/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

[ A/DT number/NN ]
of/IN 
[ those/DT ]
polled/VBN predict/VBP 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
will/MD slip/VB as/IN 
[ the/DT Federal/NNP Reserve/NNP eases/VBZ interest/NN rates/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

[ David/NNP Owen/NNP ]
,/, 
[ an/DT economist/NN ]
at/IN 
[ Kleinwort/NNP Benson/NNP ]
&/CC 
[ Co./NNP ]
in/IN 
[ London/NNP ]
,/, said/VBD 
[ he/PRP ]
expects/VBZ 
[ further/JJ cuts/NNS ]
in/IN 
[ short-term/JJ U.S./NNP rates/NNS ]
in/IN 
[ an/DT effort/NN ]
to/TO encourage/VB 
[ a/DT narrowing/NN ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT trade/NN gap/NN ]
and/CC to/TO ensure/VB 
[ a/DT soft/JJ landing/NN ]
in/IN 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP economy/NN ]
./. 

======================================

[ Robert/NNP White/NNP ]
,/, 
[ a/DT vice/NN president/NN ]
and/CC 
[ manager/NN ]
of/IN 
[ corporate/JJ trade/NN ]
at/IN 
[ First/NNP Interstate/NNP ]
of/IN 
[ California/NNP ]
,/, agreed/VBD with/IN 
[ that/DT view/NN ]
and/CC predicted/VBD 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP federal/JJ funds/NNS rate/NN ]
will/MD drop/VB to/TO between/IN 
[ 7/CD 3\/4/CD %/NN ]
and/CC 
[ 8/CD %/NN ]
within/IN 
[ 60/CD days/NNS ]
from/IN 
[ its/PRP$ current/JJ level/NN ]
at/IN 
[ 8/CD 13\/16/CD %/NN ]
./. 

[ Fed/NNP funds/NNS ]
is/VBZ 
[ the/DT rate/NN banks/NNS ]
charge/VBP 
[ each/DT other/JJ ]
on/IN 
[ overnight/JJ loans/NNS ]
;/: 
[ the/DT Fed/NNP ]
influences/VBZ 
[ the/DT rate/NN ]
by/IN adding/VBG or/CC 
[ draining/VBG reserves/NNS ]
from/IN 
[ the/DT banking/NN system/NN ]
./. 

======================================

[ Mr./NNP White/NNP ]
also/RB predicted/VBD 
[ a/DT half-point/JJ cut/NN ]
in/IN 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP discount/NN rate/NN ]
in/IN 
[ the/DT near/JJ future/NN ]
./. 

[ The/DT discount/NN rate/NN ]
,/, currently/RB 
[ 7/CD %/NN ]
,/, is/VBZ 
[ the/DT rate/NN ]

[ the/DT Fed/NNP charges/VBZ member/NN banks/NNS ]
for/IN 
[ loans/NNS ]
,/, using/VBG 
[ government/NN securities/NNS ]
as/IN 
[ collateral/NN ]
./. 

======================================

[ He/PRP ]
expects/VBZ 
[ such/PDT a/DT cut/NN ]
``/`` because/IN of/IN 
[ problems/NNS ]
in/IN 
[ several/JJ sectors/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT economy/NN ]
,/, particularly/RB 
[ real/JJ estate/NN ]
and/CC 
[ automobiles/NNS ]
./. 

''/'' 
======================================

Bolstering/VBG 
[ his/PRP$ argument/NN ]
,/, 
[ the/DT Commerce/NNP Department/NNP ]
reported/VBD yesterday/NN that/IN 
[ new/JJ home/NN sales/NNS ]
for/IN 
[ September/NNP ]
were/VBD down/RB 
[ 14/CD %/NN ]
from/IN 
[ August/NNP 's/POS revised/JJ 3.1/CD %/NN fall/NN ]
./. 

[ The/DT drop/NN ]
marked/VBD 
[ the/DT largest/JJS monthly/JJ tumble/NN ]
since/IN 
[ a/DT 19/CD %/NN slide/NN ]
in/IN 
[ January/NNP 1982/CD ]
./. 

======================================

In/IN 
[ last/JJ month/NN 's/POS survey/NN ]
,/, 
[ a/DT number/NN ]
of/IN 
[ currency/NN analysts/NNS ]
predicted/VBD 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
would/MD be/VB 
[ pressured/VBN ]
by/IN 
[ a/DT narrowing/NN ]
of/IN 
[ interest/NN rate/NN differentials/NNS ]
between/IN 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP ]
and/CC 
[ West/NNP Germany/NNP ]
./. 

======================================

Indeed/RB ,/, in/IN 
[ early/JJ October/NNP ]

[ the/DT West/JJ German/JJ central/JJ bank/NN ]
raised/VBD 
[ its/PRP$ discount/NN ]
and/CC 
[ Lombard/NNP rates/NNS ]
by/IN 
[ a/DT full/JJ percentage/NN point/NN ]
./. 

[ Several/JJ other/JJ European/JJ central/JJ banks/NNS ]
,/, notably/RB in/IN 
[ Britain/NNP ]
,/, followed/VBD 
[ the/DT West/JJ German/JJ Bundesbank/NNP 's/POS lead/NN ]
by/IN raising/VBG 
[ their/PRP$ own/JJ key/NN rates/NNS ]
./. 

And/CC 
[ a/DT week/NN ]
later/RB ,/, 
[ Japan/NNP ]
raised/VBD 
[ its/PRP$ official/JJ discount/NN rate/NN ]
by/IN 
[ a/DT half/JJ point/NN ]
to/TO 
[ 3.75/CD %/NN ]
./. 

[ The/DT Japanese/JJ discount/NN rate/NN ]
is/VBZ 
[ the/DT central/JJ bank/NN 's/POS base/JJ rate/NN ]
on/IN 
[ loans/NNS ]
to/TO 
[ commercial/JJ banks/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

After/IN 
[ a/DT ]
surprisingly/RB 
[ sharp/JJ ]
widening/NN in/IN 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP August/NNP merchandise/NN trade/NN deficit/NN ]
--/: 
[ $/$ 10.77/CD billion/CD ]
from/IN 
[ a/DT revised/JJ $/$ 8.24/CD billion/CD ]
in/IN 
[ July/NNP ]
and/CC well/RB above/IN 
[ expectations/NNS ]
--/: and/CC 
[ a/DT startling/JJ 190-point/JJ drop/NN ]
in/IN 
[ stock/NN prices/NNS ]
on/IN 
[ Oct./NNP 13/CD ]
,/, 
[ the/DT Federal/NNP Reserve/NNP ]
relaxed/VBD 
[ short-term/JJ interest/NN rates/NNS ]
,/, knocking/VBG 
[ fed/VBN funds/NNS ]
from/IN around/IN 
[ 9/CD %/NN ]
to/TO 
[ 8/CD 3\/4/CD %/NN ]
./. 

======================================

But/CC 
[ predictions/NNS ]
that/IN 
[ central/JJ banks/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT Group/NNP ]
of/IN 
[ Seven/NNP ]
 (/( 
[ G-7/NNP ]
 )/) 
[ major/JJ industrial/JJ nations/NNS ]
would/MD continue/VB 
[ their/PRP$ massive/JJ dollar/NN sales/NNS ]
went/VBD astray/RB ,/, as/IN 
[ the/DT market/NN ]
drove/VBD 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
downward/RB on/IN 
[ its/PRP$ own/JJ ]
,/, reacting/VBG to/TO 
[ Wall/NNP Street/NNP 's/POS plunge/NN ]
and/CC 
[ subsequent/JJ price/NN volatility/NN ]
,/, 
[ lower/JJR U.S./NNP interest/NN rates/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ signs/NNS ]
of/IN 
[ a/DT ]
slowing/VBG 
[ U.S./NNP economy/NN ]
./. 

[ G-7/NNP ]
consists/VBZ of/IN 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP ]
,/, 
[ Japan/NNP ]
,/, 
[ Britain/NNP ]
,/, 
[ West/NNP Germany/NNP ]
,/, 
[ Canada/NNP ]
,/, 
[ France/NNP ]
and/CC 
[ Italy/NNP ]
./. 

======================================

[ Tomoshige/NNP Kakita/NNP ]
,/, 
[ senior/JJ deputy/NN manager/NN ]
in/IN 
[ the/DT treasury/NN department/NN ]
of/IN 
[ Mitsui/NNP Bank/NNP Ltd./NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Tokyo/NNP ]
,/, suggested/VBD that/IN 
[ uncertainty/NN ]
about/IN 
[ U.S./NNP stocks/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ bonds/NNS ]
has/VBZ made/VBN 
[ Japanese/JJ investors/NNS ]
leery/JJ of/IN holding/VBG 
[ those/DT securities/NNS ]
in/IN 
[ the/DT near/JJ term/NN ]
,/, thus/RB damping/VBG 
[ dollar/NN demand/NN ]
./. 

======================================

But/CC ,/, 
[ Mr./NNP Kakita/NNP ]
added/VBD ,/, once/RB 
[ U.S./NNP equities/NNS ]
regain/VBP 
[ some/DT stability/NN ]
,/, 
[ players/NNS ]
will/MD move/VB back/RB into/IN 
[ dollar-denominated/JJ investments/NNS ]
,/, especially/RB 
[ Treasury/NNP bonds/NNS ]
,/, 
[ whose/WP$ value/NN ]
rises/VBZ when/WRB 
[ interest/NN rates/NNS ]
decline/VBP ./. 

======================================

[ Mr./NNP Kakita/NNP ]
said/VBD 
[ the/DT key/JJ dollar-yen/JJ exchange/NN rate/NN ]
is/VBZ at/IN 
[ 135/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

``/`` If/IN 
[ 135/CD ]
is/VBZ broken/VBN ,/, 
[ some/DT panic/NN ]
will/MD be/VB seen/VBN ,/, ''/'' 
[ he/PRP ]
predicted/VBD ,/, explaining/VBG that/IN 
[ Japanese/JJ institutions/NNS ]
are/VBP comfortable/JJ with/IN 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
anywhere/RB between/IN 
[ current/JJ levels/NNS ]
and/CC 
[ 135/CD yen/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

[ Jens-Uwe/NNP Fischer/NNP ]
,/, 
[ a/DT senior/JJ trader/NN ]
at/IN 
[ Manufacturers/NNP Hanover/NNP Trust/NNP Co./NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Frankfurt/NNP ]
,/, said/VBD 
[ he/PRP ]
expects/VBZ 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
to/TO recover/VB within/IN 
[ the/DT next/JJ three/CD months/NNS ]
to/TO around/IN 
[ 1.88/CD marks/NNS ]
as/IN 
[ U.S./NNP economic/JJ data/NNS ]
,/, particularly/RB 
[ U.S./NNP trade/NN figures/NNS ]
,/, 
[ level/VBP ]
off/RP ./. 

[ He/PRP ]
contended/VBD that/IN 
[ the/DT Fed/NNP ]
wo/MD n't/RB ease/VB 
[ rates/NNS ]
further/RB ,/, but/CC predicted/VBD 
[ Bundesbank/NNP officials/NNS ]
will/MD relax/VB 
[ key/JJ rates/NNS ]
in/IN 
[ West/NNP Germany/NNP ]
./. 

======================================

[ Alfred/NNP Zapfel/NNP ]
,/, 
[ chief/JJ trader/NN ]
at/IN 
[ Bank/NNP ]
of/IN 
[ Boston/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Frankfurt/NNP ]
,/, took/VBD 
[ an/DT opposite/JJ stance/NN ]
./. 

[ He/PRP ]
said/VBD 
[ he/PRP ]
expects/VBZ 
[ U.S./NNP interest/NN rates/NNS ]
to/TO decline/VB ,/, dragging/VBG 
[ the/DT dollar/NN ]
down/RB to/TO around/IN 
[ 1.80/CD marks/NNS ]
by/IN 
[ the/DT end/NN ]
of/IN 
[ January/NNP ]
after/IN 
[ a/DT short-lived/JJ dash/NN ]
to/TO 
[ 1.87/CD marks/NNS ]
by/IN 
[ the/DT end/NN ]
of/IN 
[ November/NNP ]
./. 

[ West/JJ German/JJ interest/NN rates/NNS ]
,/, 
[ he/PRP ]
said/VBD ,/, will/MD remain/VB 
[ unchanged/JJ ]
./. 

======================================

``/`` But/CC 
[ I/PRP ]
'm/VBP not/RB 
[ one/CD ]
of/IN 
[ these/DT great/JJ dollar/NN ]
bears/NNS 
[ you/PRP ]
see/VBP 
[ more/JJR ]
of/IN 
[ these/DT days/NNS ]
,/, ''/'' 
[ Mr./NNP Zapfel/NNP ]
said/VBD ./. 

``/`` 
[ I/PRP ]
ca/MD n't/RB really/RB see/VB 
[ it/PRP ]
dropping/VBG far/RB below/IN 
[ 1.80/CD marks/NNS ]
./. 

''/'' 
======================================

[ Scott/NNP Greene/NNP ]
,/, 
[ chief/JJ foreign/JJ exchange/NN dealer/NN ]
with/IN 
[ Julius/NNP Baer/NNP ]
&/CC 
[ Co./NNP ]
in/IN 
[ New/NNP York/NNP ]
,/, fits/VBZ 
[ the/DT description/NN ]
of/IN 
[ a/DT ]
``/`` 
[ great/JJ dollar/NN bear/NN ]
./. 

''/'' 
[ He/PRP ]
predicted/VBD 
[ the/DT U.S./NNP unit/NN ]
will/MD skid/VB below/IN 
[ 1.80/CD marks/NNS ]
to/TO around/IN 
[ 1.78/CD marks/NNS ]

[ this/DT month/NN ]
and/CC 
[ 1.75/CD marks/NNS ]
by/IN 
[ the/DT beginning/NN ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT new/JJ year/NN ]
./. 

======================================

``/`` 
[ We/PRP ]
're/VBP finally/RB seeing/VBG 
[ the/DT culmination/NN ]
of/IN 
[ all/PDT the/DT recessionary/JJ buildup/NN ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT last/JJ few/JJ months/NNS ]
,/, ''/'' 
[ he/PRP ]
said/VBD ,/, noting/VBG 
[ a/DT ]
continuing/VBG 
[ downward/JJ trend/NN ]
in/IN 
[ U.S./NNP interest/NN rates/NNS ]
,/, 
[ a/DT shaky/JJ stock/NN market/NN ]
and/CC ``/`` 
[ gloomier/JJR economic/JJ times/NNS ]
ahead/RB ''/'' 
[ all/DT ]
signal/VBP 
[ a/DT ]
significantly/RB 
[ lower/JJR dollar/NN ]
./. 

======================================

In/IN 
[ the/DT wake/NN ]
of/IN 
[ British/NNP Chancellor/NNP ]
of/IN 
[ the/DT Exchequer/NNP Nigel/NNP Lawson/NNP 's/POS surprise/JJ resignation/NN ]
and/CC 
[ sterling/NN 's/POS subsequent/JJ nose-dive/NN ]
,/, 
[ most/JJS analysts/NNS ]
had/VBD little/JJ good/JJ to/TO say/VB about/IN 
[ the/DT pound/NN 's/POS near-term/JJ prospects/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

[ Mr./NNP Owen/NNP ]
of/IN 
[ Kleinwort/NNP Benson/NNP ]
suggested/VBD that/IN 
[ the/DT new/JJ chancellor/NN ]
,/, 
[ John/NNP Major/NNP ]
,/, will/MD take/VB 
[ a/DT tough/JJ line/NN ]
in/IN 
[ his/PRP$ autumn/NN statement/NN ]
later/RB 
[ this/DT month/NN ]
,/, helping/VBG to/TO underpin/VB 
[ the/DT pound/NN ]
./. 

But/CC ,/, 
[ he/PRP ]
warned/VBD ,/, 
[ the/DT currency/NN ]
will/MD remain/VB at/IN 
[ risk/NN ]
./. 

======================================

On/IN 
[ the/DT Commodity/NNP Exchange/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ New/NNP York/NNP ]
,/, 
[ gold/NN ]
for/IN 
[ current/JJ delivery/NN ]
dropped/VBD 
[ $/$ 3.10/CD ]
to/TO 
[ $/$ 374.70/CD ]

[ an/DT ounce/NN ]
in/IN 
[ moderate/JJ ]
trading/NN ./. 

Estimated/JJ 
[ volume/NN ]
was/VBD 
[ 3.5/CD million/CD ounces/NNS ]
./. 

======================================

In/IN early/RB trading/NN in/IN 
[ Hong/NNP Kong/NNP Wednesday/NNP ]
,/, 
[ gold/NN ]
was/VBD quoted/VBN at/IN 
[ $/$ 373.80/CD ]

[ an/DT ounce/NN ]
./. 

======================================

[ Christopher/NNP Hill/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Tokyo/NNP ]
,/, 
[ Nicholas/NNP Hastings/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ London/NNP ]
,/, 
[ Erik/NNP Kirschbaum/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ Frankfurt/NNP ]
and/CC 
[ Caitlin/NNP Randall/NNP ]
and/CC 
[ Douglas/NNP Appell/NNP ]
in/IN 
[ New/NNP York/NNP ]
contributed/VBD to/TO 
[ this/DT article/NN ]
./.